Prediction Accuracy
Track the historical accuracy of prediction markets across all categories. This leaderboard shows which market types have the highest accuracy rates, helping you identify where collective intelligence is most reliable and where contrarian opportunities may exist.
73.2%
Overall Accuracy
Across all resolved markets
847
Correct Predictions
Out of 1,156 total
89%
Resolution Rate
Markets resolved on time
Bitcoin
Top Category
82% accuracy rate
How Accuracy is Calculated
Measures calibration between predicted probabilities and actual outcomes
Percentage of markets where probability direction was correct
Expected value vs. random chance, weighted by volume
Top Performing Categories
By accuracy rate847
Total Resolved
Predictions completed
73.2%
Market Accuracy
Majority predicted correctly
$1.8M
Average Volume
Per prediction
Resolved Predictions
| Prediction | Final Prob. | Outcome | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will BTC exceed $80,000 by January 2026? | 72% | Correct | $4.2M | Jan 15, 2026 | 78% |
Will ETH 2.0 staking reach 30M by Q4 2025? | 81% | Correct | $2.8M | Dec 31, 2025 | 85% |
Will Solana reach $300 by end of 2025? | 45% | Incorrect | $3.4M | Dec 31, 2025 | 52% |
Will BTC dominance stay above 45% through 2025? | 76% | Correct | $2.1M | Dec 31, 2025 | 81% |
Will Tether remain fully backed through 2025? | 88% | Correct | $1.9M | Dec 31, 2025 | 91% |
Will any L2 exceed Ethereum mainnet TVL in 2025? | 32% | Correct | $1.4M | Dec 31, 2025 | 38% |
Will any country ban Bitcoin mining in 2025? | 41% | Incorrect | $1.2M | Dec 31, 2025 | 47% |
Will Ethereum gas stay below 50 gwei avg in 2025? | 62% | Correct | $980K | Dec 31, 2025 | 68% |
Will DOGE be accepted by major retailer in 2025? | 23% | Incorrect | $1.5M | Dec 31, 2025 | 28% |
Will Binance US resume operations fully? | 38% | Incorrect | $2.7M | Dec 31, 2025 | 43% |
Will MicroStrategy hold 200K+ BTC by 2025? | 74% | Correct | $3.1M | Dec 31, 2025 | 79% |
Will NFT trading volume recover to 2021 levels? | 18% | Correct | $890K | Dec 31, 2025 | 22% |
Will SEC sue another major exchange in 2025? | 54% | Incorrect | $2.2M | Dec 31, 2025 | 59% |
Will stablecoin total market cap exceed $200B? | 67% | Correct | $1.8M | Nov 15, 2025 | 72% |
Will Cardano ship Voltaire governance? | 71% | Correct | $890K | Sep 1, 2025 | 76% |
Will BTC ETF inflows exceed $20B in 2024? | 58% | Correct | $5.2M | Dec 31, 2024 | 64% |
Will BTC close 2024 above $90,000? | 61% | Correct | $7.4M | Dec 31, 2024 | 67% |
Will the SEC approve spot ETH ETF in 2024? | 68% | Correct | $6.1M | May 23, 2024 | 72% |
Will BTC halving occur before May 2024? | 94% | Correct | $2.3M | Apr 20, 2024 | 97% |
Will Fed cut rates by March 2024? | 28% | Incorrect | $3.8M | Mar 31, 2024 | 34% |
Accuracy by Category
Bitcoin
78%
142 resolved
Ethereum
71%
98 resolved
DeFi
69%
156 resolved
Regulation
74%
87 resolved
Market Cap
72%
124 resolved
Altcoins
65%
240 resolved
Accuracy measures how often the market consensus (probability above or below 50%) correctly predicted the outcome. Higher accuracy indicates the prediction market was effective at aggregating information for that category.